Prevalence and Influencing Factor Analysis of Typhoid/Paratyphoid Fever - China, 2011-2020.

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Over the last 12 years, there has been a consistent decline in the cases of typhoid/paratyphoid fever in China. Studying the epidemiological patterns of these diseases in various provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) and examining potential influencing factors can provide crucial information for implementing successful control strategies. Methods: In this study, we analyzed the cases and incidence rates of typhoid/paratyphoid fever reported in various PLADs of China from 2011 to 2022, along with exploring potential influencing factors. We initially studied spatial shifts in the incidence rates through centroid shift analysis. Seasonal variations in typhoid/paratyphoid fever onset were examined using heatmaps. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was utilized to understand the spatial correlations among different PLADs. To assess potential factors, we utilized a generalized estimating equations model that integrated spatial lag effects and sequence comparison analysis. Results: The study identified significant geographical clustering of typhoid/paratyphoid fever cases in southwestern China. A decrease in incidence rates in the west resulted in a movement of the disease center towards the east. Higher incidence occurred during warmer seasons, highlighting the seasonal pattern of the diseases. Factors such as meteorological conditions and socioeconomic status were probable influencers of typhoid/paratyphoid fever. Conclusions: The geographical and temporal spread of typhoid/paratyphoid fever can be impacted by meteorological and socioeconomic factors. Enhancing economic conditions, particularly in regions with high disease prevalence, could aid in the prevention and management of these fevers.