Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling to assess the effect of land-use changes on the incidence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in the Brazilian Amazon.
Portella, T P; Sudbrack, V; Coutinho, R M; Prado, P I; Kraenkel, R A.
Affiliation
  • Portella TP; Department of Ecology, Institute of Bioscience, 321 Rua do Matão, Travessa 14, Cidade Universitária, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP CEP 05508090, Brazil. Electronic address: portellatp@gmail.com.
  • Sudbrack V; Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.
  • Coutinho RM; Federal University of ABC (UFABC), Center for Mathematics, Computation and Cognition, Avenida dos Estados, 5001, Bairro Bangu, Santo André, SP CEP 09210-580, Brazil.
  • Prado PI; Department of Ecology, Institute of Bioscience, 321 Rua do Matão, Travessa 14, Cidade Universitária, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP CEP 05508090, Brazil.
  • Kraenkel RA; São Paulo State University (UNESP), Institute for Theoretical Physics (IFT), R. Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz, 271, Bloco II, Barra-Funda, São Paulo, SP CEP 01140-070, Brazil.
Sci Total Environ ; 953: 176064, 2024 Nov 25.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39245386
ABSTRACT
Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease caused by a protozoan of the genus Leishmania and is considered one of the most important neglected tropical diseases. The Brazilian Amazon Forest harbors one of the highest diversity of Leishmania parasites and vectors and is one of the main focuses of the disease in the Americas. Previous studies showed that some types of anthropogenic disturbances have affected the abundance and distribution of CL vectors and hosts; however, few studies have thoroughly investigated the influence of different classes of land cover and land-use changes on the disease transmission risk. Here, we quantify the effect of land use and land-cover changes on the incidence of CL in all municipalities within the Brazilian Amazon Forest, from 2001 to 2017. We used a structured spatiotemporal Bayesian model to assess the effect of forest cover, agriculture, livestock, extractivism, and- deforestation on CL incidence, accounting for confounding variables such as population, climate, socioeconomic, and spatiotemporal random effects. We found that the increased risk of CL was associated with deforestation, especially modulated by a positive interaction between forest cover and livestock. Landscapes with ongoing deforestation for extensive cattle ranching are typically found in municipalities within the Amazon Frontier, where a high relative risk for CL was also identified. These findings provide valuable insights into developing effective public health policies and land-use planning to ensure healthier landscapes for people.
Subject(s)
Key words

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Forests / Bayes Theorem / Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous / Conservation of Natural Resources Limits: Animals / Humans Country/Region as subject: America do sul / Brasil Language: En Journal: Sci Total Environ Year: 2024 Document type: Article Country of publication: Netherlands

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Forests / Bayes Theorem / Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous / Conservation of Natural Resources Limits: Animals / Humans Country/Region as subject: America do sul / Brasil Language: En Journal: Sci Total Environ Year: 2024 Document type: Article Country of publication: Netherlands