Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Neutralization Data up to 2021-12-22

ABSTRACT

The rapid spread of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant (B.1.1.529) resulted in international efforts to quickly assess its escape from immunity generated by vaccines and previous infections. Numerous laboratories published Omicron neutralization data as preprints and reports. The understandable limitations and variability in such rapid reporting of early results however made it difficult to make definitive statements about the data. Here, we aggregate and analyze Omicron neutralization data from 23 reporting laboratories up to 2021-12-22. There are enough data to identify multiple trends and make two definitive points. First, in twice-vaccinated individuals, titer fold drop of Omicron relative to wild type is more than 19x, likely substantially more given the number of measurements below the limit of detection of the assay. Second, out to one month post third vaccination with an mRNA vaccine, or twice vaccinated after an earlier infection, the titer fold drop to Omicron is substantially less at approximately 7x. This substantially lower fold drop and somewhat higher titers after 3rd vaccination are strong early evidence for the utility of booster vaccination.