This article is a Preprint
Preprints are preliminary research reports that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Preprints posted online allow authors to receive rapid feedback and the entire scientific community can appraise the work for themselves and respond appropriately. Those comments are posted alongside the preprints for anyone to read them and serve as a post publication assessment.
The spatiotemporal estimation of the dynamic risk and the international transmission of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak: A global perspective
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-20029413
ABSTRACT
An ongoing novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia infection outbreak called COVID-19 started in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019. It both spread rapidly to all provinces in China and started spreading around the world quickly through international human movement from January 2020. Currently, the spatiotemporal epidemic transmission patterns, prediction models, and possible risk analysis for the future are insufficient for COVID-19 but we urgently need relevant information, particularly from the global perspective. We have developed a novel two-stage simulation model to simulate the spatiotemporal changes in the number of COVID-19 cases and estimate the future worldwide risk. Based on the connectivity of countries to China and the countrys medical and epidemic prevention capabilities, different scenarios are generated to analyze the possible transmission throughout the world and use this information to evaluate each countrys vulnerability to and the dynamic risk of COVID-19. Countries vulnerability to the COVID-19 outbreak from China is calculated for 63 countries around the world. Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan are the most vulnerable areas. The relationship between each countrys vulnerability and days before the first imported case occurred shows a very high exponential decrease. The cumulative number of cases in each country also has a linear relationship with vulnerability, which can compare and quantify the initial epidemic prevention capabilities to various countries management strategies. In total, 1,000 simulation results of future cases around the world are generated for the spatiotemporal risk assessment. According to the simulation results of this study, if there is no specific medicine for it, it will likely form a global pandemic. This method can be used as a preliminary risk assessment of the spatiotemporal spread for a new global epidemic. * Note This study was completed on February 15, 2020.
cc_by_nc_nd
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Type of study:
Experimental_studies
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document type:
Preprint