Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is now widely spreading around the world as a global pandemic. In this report, we estimated the global tendency of COVID-19 and analyzed the associated global epidemic risk, given that the status quo is continued without further measures being taken. Based on official data of confirmed and recovered cases until May 21, 2020, the results showed that the global R0, excluding China, was estimated to be 2.76 (95% CI 2.57 - 2.95). The United States, Germany, Italy, and Spain have peak values over 100,000. Using dynamical model and cluster analysis, we partition the globe into four regional epicenters of the outbreak Southeast Asia extending southward to Oceania, the Middle East, Western Europe, and North America. Among them, Western Europe would become the major center of the outbreak. The peak values in Germany, Italy, and Spain were estimated to be 228,000, 291,000, and 298,000, respectively. Based on the current control measures by May 21, 2020, the peak value in the United States will reach 2,114,000. The cumulative number of 51 mainly researched countries patients might finally attain 6,542,000 (95% CI 4,772,000 - 40,735,000). We also estimated the diagnosis rate, recovery rate, and infection degree of each country or region, and used clustering algorithm to retrieve countries or regions with similar epidemic characteristics. Several suggestions have been proposed for countries or regions in different clusters.