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Optimal Control applied to a SEIR model of 2019-nCoV with social distancing
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-20061069
ABSTRACT
Does the implementation of social distancing measures have merit in controlling the spread of the novel coronavirus? In this study, we develop a mathematical model to explore the effects of social distancing on new disease infections. Mathematical analyses of our model indicate that successful eradication of the disease is strongly dependent on the chosen preventive measure. Numerical computations of the model solution demonstrate that the ability to flatten the curve becomes easier as social distancing is strictly enforced. Based on our model, we also formulate an optimal control problem and solve it using Pontryagins Maximum Principle and an efficient numerical iterative method. Our numerical results of an optimal 2019-nCoV treatment protocol that yields a minimum disease burden from this disease indicates that social distancing is vitally important.
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Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document type:
Preprint
