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Adaptive policies for use of physical distancing interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-20065714
ABSTRACT
Policymakers need decision tools to determine when to use physical distancing interventions to maximize the control of COVID-19 while minimizing the economic and social costs of these interventions. We develop a pragmatic decision tool to characterize adaptive policies that combine real-time surveillance data with clear decision rules to guide when to trigger, continue, or stop physical distancing interventions during the current pandemic. In model-based experiments, we find that adaptive policies characterized by our proposed approach prevent more deaths and require a shorter overall duration of physical distancing than alternative physical distancing policies. Our proposed approach can readily be extended to more complex models and interventions. One-sentence summariesAdaptive physical distancing policies save more lives with fewer weeks of intervention than policies which prespecify the length and timing of interventions.
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Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Type of study:
Experimental_studies
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document type:
Preprint