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Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
David J Price; Freya M Shearer; Michael T Meehan; Emma McBryde; Robert Moss; Nick Golding; Eamon J Conway; Peter Dawson; Deborah Cromer; James Wood; Sam Abbott; Jodie McVernon; James M McCaw.
Affiliation
  • David J Price; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
  • Freya M Shearer; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
  • Michael T Meehan; Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
  • Emma McBryde; Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
  • Robert Moss; Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
  • Nick Golding; Telethon Kids Institute and Curtin University, Perth, Australia
  • Eamon J Conway; Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology Unit at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne and
  • Peter Dawson; Defence Science and Technology, Department of Defence, Australia
  • Deborah Cromer; Kirby Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
  • James Wood; School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
  • Sam Abbott; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Lon
  • Jodie McVernon; The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
  • James M McCaw; School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20080127
Journal article
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ABSTRACT
As of 18 April 2020, there had been 6,533 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia [1]. Of these, 67 had died from the disease. The daily count of new confirmed cases was declining. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis -- for now. Analysing factors, such as the intensity and timing public health interventions, that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19 will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. Using data from the Australian national COVID-19 database, we describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April 2020. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below 1 (the threshold value for control) in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that hospital ward and intensive care unit occupancy will remain below capacity thresholds over the next two weeks.
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Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Type of study: Observational study / Qualitative research Language: English Year: 2020 Document type: Preprint
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Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Type of study: Observational study / Qualitative research Language: English Year: 2020 Document type: Preprint