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Analyzing Covid-19 Data using SIRD Models
Abhijit Chakraborty; Jiaying Chen; Amelie Desvars-Larrive; Peter Klimek; Erwin Flores Tames; David Garcia; Leonhard Horstmeyer; Michaela Kaleta; Jana Lasser; Jenny Reddish; Beate Pinior; Johannes Wachs; Peter Turchin.
Affiliation
  • Abhijit Chakraborty; Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstaedter Strasse 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria
  • Jiaying Chen; Section for Science of Complex Systems, Center for Medical Statistics, Informatics, and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, 1090, Vienna, Austria
  • Amelie Desvars-Larrive; University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna
  • Peter Klimek; Section for Science of Complex Systems, Center for Medical Statistics, Informatics, and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, 1090, Vienna, Austria
  • Erwin Flores Tames; Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstaedter Strasse 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria
  • David Garcia; Section for Science of Complex Systems, Center for Medical Statistics, Informatics, and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, 1090, Vienna, Austria
  • Leonhard Horstmeyer; Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstaedter Strasse 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria
  • Michaela Kaleta; Section for Science of Complex Systems, Center for Medical Statistics, Informatics, and Intelligent Systems, Medical University of Vienna, 1090, Vienna, Austria
  • Jana Lasser; Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstaedter Strasse 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria
  • Jenny Reddish; Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstaedter Strasse 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria
  • Beate Pinior; Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, Institute of Food Safety, Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health, University of Veterinary Medicine, 12
  • Johannes Wachs; Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Information Business. Welthandelsplatz 1, Vienna 1020, Austria
  • Peter Turchin; Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstaedter Strasse 39, 1080 Vienna, Austria
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20115527
ABSTRACT
The goal of this analysis is to estimate the effects of the diverse government intervention measures implemented to mitigate the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic. We use a process model based on a compartmental epidemiological framework Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD). Analysis of case data with such a mechanism-based model has advantages over purely phenomenological approaches because the parameters of the SIRD model can be calibrated using prior knowledge. This approach can be used to investigate how governmental interventions have affected the Covid-19-related transmission and mortality rate during the epidemic.
License
cc_by_nc_nd
Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Type of study: Qualitative research Language: English Year: 2020 Document type: Preprint
Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Type of study: Qualitative research Language: English Year: 2020 Document type: Preprint
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