Global and local mobility as a barometer for COVID-19 dynamics

ABSTRACT

The spreading of infectious diseases including COVID-19 depends on human interactions. In an environment where behavioral patterns and physical contacts are constantly evolving according to new governmental regulations, measuring these interactions is a major challenge. Mobility has emerged as an indicator for human activity and, implicitly, for human interactions. Here we study the coupling between mobility and COVID-19 dynamics and show that variations in global air traffic and local driving mobility can be used to stratify different disease phases. For ten European countries, our study shows maximal correlation between driving mobility and disease dynamics with a time lag of 14.6 {+/-} 5.6 days. Our findings suggests that local mobility can serve as a quantitative metric to forecast future reproduction numbers and identify the stages of the pandemic when mobility and reproduction become decorrelated.