A model of COVID-19 transmission and control on university campuses

ABSTRACT

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, institutions of higher education in almost every nation closed in the first half of 2020. University administrators are now facing decisions about if and how to safely return students, staff and faculty to campus. To provide a framework to evaluate various strategies, we developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) type deterministic compartmental transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 among students, staff and faculty. Our goals were to support the immediate pandemic planning at our own university, and to provide a flexible modeling framework to inform the planning efforts at similar academic institutions. We parameterized the model for our institution, Emory University, a medium-size private university in Atlanta, Georgia. Control strategies of isolation and quarantine are initiated by screening (regardless of symptoms) or testing (of symptomatic individuals). We explore a range of screening and testing frequencies and perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis of input parameters. We find that monthly and weekly screening can reduce cumulative incidence by 30% and 81% in students, respectively, while testing with a 2-, 4- and 7-day delay results in an 92%, 85% and 73% reduction in cumulative incidence in students over the semester, respectively. Smaller reductions are observed among staff and faculty. A testing strategy requires far fewer diagnostic assays to be implemented than a screening assay. Our intervention model is conservative in that we assume a fairly high reproductive number. We find that community-introduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection onto campus may be controlled with effective testing, isolation, contract tracing and quarantine, but that cases, hospitalization, and (in some scenarios) deaths may still occur. In addition to estimating health impacts, this model can help to predict the resource requirements in terms of diagnostic capacity and isolation/quarantine facilities associated with different strategies.