Evaluating Scenarios for School Reopening under COVID19

ABSTRACT

Thousands of school systems have been struggling with the decisions about how to safely and effectively deliver education during the fall semester of 2020, amid the COVID19 pandemic. The objective of this study is to evaluate the public health impact of reopening schools on the spread of COVID19. An agent-based simulation model was adapted and used to project the number of infections and deaths under multiple school reopening dates and scenarios, including different cohorts receiving in-person instruction on alternating days, only younger children returning to in-person instruction, regular schedule (all students receiving in-person instruction), and school closure (all students receiving online instruction). The study period was February 18th-November 24th, 2020 and the state of Georgia was used as a case study. Across all scenarios, the number of COVID19-related deaths ranged from approximately 17 to 22 thousand during the study period, and on the peak day, the number of new infections ranged from 43 to 68 thousand. An alternating school day schedule performed (i) almost as well as keeping schools closed, with the infection attack rate ranging from 38.5% to 39.8% compared to that of 37.7% under school closure; (ii) slightly better than only allowing children 10 years or younger to return to in-person instruction. Delaying the reopening of schools had a minimal impact on reducing infections and deaths under most scenarios. Significance StatementThis study provides insights on the impact of various school reopening dates and scenarios on the spread of COVID19, incorporating differences between children and adults in terms of disease progression and community transmission. School districts are faced with these challenging decisions considering the complex tradeoffs of their impact between public health, education, and society. While the number of new COVID19 confirmed cases continue to increase in many states, so are concerns about the negative impact of school closures on the childrens education and development. The systematic analysis of school reopening scenarios provided in this study will support school systems in their decision-making regarding if, when, and how to return to in-person instruction.