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Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2.
Preprint
in En
| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
| ID: ppmedrxiv-20194183
Journal article
A scientific journal published article is available and is probably based on this preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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A scientific journal published article is available and is probably based on this preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See journal article
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 outbreak has highlighted our vulnerability to novel infections. Faced with this threat and no effective treatment, in line with many other countries, the UK adopted enforced social distancing (lockdown) to reduce transmission- successfully reducing the reproductive number, R, below one. However, given the large pool of susceptible individuals that remain, complete relaxation of controls is likely to generate a substantial second wave. Vaccination remains the only foreseeable means of both containing the infection and returning to normal interactions and behaviour. Here, we consider the optimal targeting of vaccination within the UK, with the aim of minimising future deaths or quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses. We show that, for a range of assumptions on the action and efficacy of the vaccine, targeting older age groups first is optimal and can avoid a second wave if the vaccine prevents transmission as well as disease.
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Full text:
1
Collection:
09-preprints
Database:
PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
Type of study:
Experimental_studies
/
Rct
Language:
En
Year:
2020
Document type:
Preprint