This article is a Preprint
Preprints are preliminary research reports that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Preprints posted online allow authors to receive rapid feedback and the entire scientific community can appraise the work for themselves and respond appropriately. Those comments are posted alongside the preprints for anyone to read them and serve as a post publication assessment.
IMPACT OF UNIVERSITY RE-OPENING ON TOTAL COMMUNITY COVID-19 BURDEN
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-20197467
Journal article
A scientific journal published article is available and is probably based on this preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See journal article
A scientific journal published article is available and is probably based on this preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See journal article
ABSTRACT
Purpose:
Post-secondary students have higher than average contacts than the general population due to congregate living, use of public transit, high-density academic and social activities, and employment in the services sector. We evaluated the impact of a large student population returning to a mid-sized city currently experiencing a low rate of COVID-19 on community health outcomes. We consider whether targeted routine or one-time screening in this population can mitigate community COVID-19 impacts.Methods:
We developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 subdivided into three interacting populations general population, university students, and long-term care residents. We parameterized the model using the medical literature and expert opinion. We calibrated the model to the observed outcomes in a mid-sized Canadian city between March 1 and August 15, 2020 prior to the arrival of a relatively large post-secondary student population. We evaluated the impact of the student population (20,000 people arriving on September 1) on cumulative COVID-19 infections over the fall semester, the timing of peak infections, the timing and peak level of critical care occupancy, and the timing of re-engaged social and economic restrictions. We consider multiple scenarios with different student and general population COVID-19 prevention behaviours as well as different COVID-19 screening strategies in students.Results:
In a city with low levels of COVID-19 activity, the return of a relatively large student population substantially increases the total number of COVID-19 infections in the community. In a scenario in which students immediately engage in a 24% contact reduction compared to pre-COVID levels, the total number of infections in the community increases by 87% (from 3,900 without the students to 7,299 infections with the students), with 71% of the incremental infections occurring in the general population, causing social and economic restrictions to be re-engaged 3 weeks earlier and an incremental 17 COVID-19 deaths. Scenarios in which students have an initial, short-term increase in contacts with other students before engaging in contact reduction behaviours can increase infections in the community by 150% or more. In such scenarios, screening asymptomatic students every 5 days reduces the number of infections attributable to the introduction of the university student population by 42% and delays the re-engagement of social and economic restrictions by 1 week. Compared to screening every 5 days, one-time mass screening of students prevents fewer infections, but is highly efficient in terms of infections prevented per screening test performed.Discussion:
University students are highly inter-connected with the city communities in which they live and go to school, and they have a higher number of contacts than the general population. High density living environments, enthusiasm for the new school year, and relatively high rates of asymptomatic presentation may decrease their self-protective behaviours and contribute to increased community transmission of COVID-19 affecting at-risk members of the city community. Screening targeted at this population provides significant public health benefits to the community through averted infections, critical care admissions, and COVID-19 deaths.
cc_by_nc_nd
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Type of study:
Experimental_studies
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document type:
Preprint