Aging and COVID-19 mortality: A demographic perspective

ABSTRACT

Demographers have emphasized the importance of age in explaining the spread and impact on mortality of COVID-19. However, the relationship between COVID-19 with age should be contextualized in relation to other causes of death. This study set out to compare the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality with other major causes of death and across countries, and to use these regularities to impute age-specific death counts in countries with partial data. Using US vital Statistics, the COVID-19 mortality doubling time in a Gompertz context was compared with 65 major causes of death. COVID-19 fatality and mortality doubling times were similarly compared within and between 27 countries, using harmonized demographic databases of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. Several findings are supported by the empirical evidence. First, COVID-19 mortality increases exponentially with age at a Gompertz rate near the median of aging-related causes of death, as well as pneumonia and influenza. Second, COVID-19 mortality levels are 2.8 to 8.2 times higher than pneumonia and influenza across the adult age range. Third, the relationship between both COVID-19 fatality and mortality with age varies considerably across countries. Fourth, COVID-19 deaths by age are imputed for Israel as a case in point. In conclusion, the increase in COVID-19 mortality with age resembles the population rate of aging. Country differences in the age pattern of COVID-19 fatality and mortality may point to differences in underlying population health, standards of clinical care, and data quality. This study underscores the need to contextualize the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality in relation to other causes of death.