This article is a Preprint
Preprints are preliminary research reports that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Preprints posted online allow authors to receive rapid feedback and the entire scientific community can appraise the work for themselves and respond appropriately. Those comments are posted alongside the preprints for anyone to read them and serve as a post publication assessment.
Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on eliminating trachoma as a public health problem
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-20219691
Journal article
A scientific journal published article is available and is probably based on this preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See journal article
A scientific journal published article is available and is probably based on this preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See journal article
ABSTRACT
BackgroundProgress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts. MethodsWe use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma. ResultsWe identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of one. We find that when the basic reproduction number is below one, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is above one, significant delays can occur. In most districts a year of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease. ConclusionIf the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.
cc_by_nc_nd
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Type of study:
Observational study
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document type:
Preprint