Role of air temperature and humidity in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

ABSTRACT

Improved understanding of the effects of meteorological conditions on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent for COVID-19 disease, is urgently needed to inform mitigation efforts. Here, we estimated the relationship between air temperature or specific humidity (SH) and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 913 U.S. counties with abundant reported infections from March 15 to August 31, 2020. Specifically, we quantified the associations of daily mean temperature and SH with daily estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number (Rt) and calculated the fraction of Rt attributable to these meteorological conditions. Both lower temperature and lower SH were significantly associated with increased Rt. The fraction of Rt attributable to temperature was 5.10% (95% eCI 5.00 - 5.18%), and the fraction of Rt attributable to SH was 14.47% (95% eCI 14.37 - 14.54%). These fractions generally were higher in northern counties than in southern counties. Our findings indicate that cold and dry weather are moderately associated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, with humidity playing a larger role than temperature.