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A COVID-19 Model for Local Authorities of the United Kingdom
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-20236661
ABSTRACT
We propose a new framework to model the COVID-19 epidemic of the United Kingdom at the level of local authorities. The model fits within a general framework for semi-mechanistic Bayesian models of the epidemic, with some important innovations we model the proportion of infections that result in reported deaths and cases as random variables. This is in contrast to standard frameworks that model the latent infection as a deterministic function of time varying reproduction number, Rt. The model is tailored and designed to be updated daily based on publicly available data. We envisage the model to be useful for now-casting and short-term projections of the epidemic as well as estimating historical trends. The model fits are available on a public website, https//imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local. The model is currently being used by the Scottish government in their decisions on interventions within Scotland [1, issue 24 to now].
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Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Type of study:
Rct
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document type:
Preprint
