This article is a Preprint
Preprints are preliminary research reports that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Preprints posted online allow authors to receive rapid feedback and the entire scientific community can appraise the work for themselves and respond appropriately. Those comments are posted alongside the preprints for anyone to read them and serve as a post publication assessment.
Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 testing: predictors of effectiveness; risk of increasing transmission
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-20236950
ABSTRACT
Testing asymptomatic people for SARS-CoV-2 aims to reduce COVID-19 transmission. Screening programs effectiveness depends upon testing strategy, sample handling logistics, test sensitivity, and individual behavior, in addition to dynamics of viral transmission. We investigated the interaction between these factors to determine how to optimize reduction of transmission. We show that under idealistic assumptions 70% of transmission may be averted, but under realistic assumptions only 7% may be averted. We show that programs that overwhelm laboratory capacity or reduce isolation of those with minor symptoms have increased transmission compared with those that do not programs need to be designed to avoid these issues. Our model allows optimal selection of whom to test, quantifies the balance between accuracy and timeliness, and quantifies potential impacts of behavioral interventions. One Sentence SummaryPrograms that overwhelm laboratory capacity or reduce isolation of those with minor symptoms have impaired effectiveness.
cc_no
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Type of study:
Experimental_studies
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document type:
Preprint