Physician Perceptions of Catching COVID-19

ABSTRACT

BackgroundRisk perception, influenced and biased by multiple factors, can affect behavior. ObjectiveTo assess the variability of physician perceptions of catching COVID-19. DesignCross sectional, random stratified sample of physicians registered with Sermo, a global networking platform open to verified and licensed physicians. Main outcome measuresThe survey asked "What is your likelihood of catching COVID-19 in the next three months?" The physicians were asked to give their best estimate as an exact percentage. ResultsThe survey was completed by 1004 physicians (40 countries, 67 specialties, 49% frontline [e.g. ER, infectious disease, internal medicine]) with a mean (SD) age of 49.14 (12) years. Mean (SD) self-risk estimate was 32.3% {+/-} 26% with a range from 0% to 100% (Figure 1a). Risk estimates were higher in younger (<50 years) doctors and in non-US doctors versus their older and US counterparts (p<0.05 for all) (Figure 1b). Risk estimates were higher among front line versus non-frontline doctors (p<0.05). Risk estimates were higher for women than men (p<0.05) among respondents (60%) reporting gender. O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=122 SRC="FIGDIR/small/20249089v2_fig1A.gif" ALT="Figure 1A"> View larger version (17K) org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7dd844org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@17241org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@f43cb2org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@bcd7f1_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG O_FLOATNOFigure 1A.C_FLOATNO Distribution of risk prediction for overall sample (N=1004). Upper panel is a line box whisker and bottom panel shows the frequency distribution. C_FIG O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=151 SRC="FIGDIR/small/20249089v2_fig1B.gif" ALT="Figure 1B"> View larger version (21K) org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@51be7org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@16ae5fcorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@12118a2org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1d848c6_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG O_FLOATNOFigure1B.C_FLOATNO Mean (SD) risk estimates by age, frontline status, and geographic region. C_FIG ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first global study to document physician risk perceptions for catching COVID-19 and how it is impacted by age, gender, practice specialty and geography. Accurate calibration of risk perception is vital since both over- and underestimation of risk could impact physician behavior and have implications for public health.