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Evaluating the effects of re-opening plans on dynamics of COVID-19 in SP
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-21249809
ABSTRACT
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization in early March 2020. In Brazil, Sao Paulo is the most affected state, comprising about 20% of the countrys cases. With no vaccine available to date, distancing measures have been taken to reduce virus transmission. To reduce the pandemics effect on the economy, the government of Sao Paulo has proposed a plan consisting of five phases of the gradual re-opening of activities. In this context, we have developed a mathematical model to simulate the gradual re-opening plan on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, in the city of Sao Paulo. The model shows that a precipitous reopening can cause a higher peak of the disease, which may compromise the local health system. Waiting for the reduction in the incidence of infected individuals for at least 15 days to phase transition is the most efficient strategy compared to the fixed-period scenario at each phase of the re-opening plan.
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Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Type of study:
Experimental_studies
/
Observational study
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document type:
Preprint
