Simulating the impact of different vaccination policies on the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City

ABSTRACT

PurposeTo analyze potential COVID-19 epidemic outcomes in New York City under different SARS-CoV-2 virus circulation scenarios and vaccine rollout policies from early Jan 2021 to end of June 2021. Key findingsIn anticipation of the potential arrival and dominance of the more infectious SARS-CoV-2 variant O_LIMass-vaccination would be critical to mitigating epidemic severity (26-52% reduction in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, compared to no vaccination, provided the new UK variant supplants currently circulating variants). C_LIO_LIPrioritizing key risk groups for earlier vaccination would lead to greater reductions in hospitalizations and deaths than infections. Thus, in general this would be a good strategy. C_LIO_LICurrent vaccination prioritization policy is suboptimal. To avert more hospitalizations and deaths, mass-vaccination of all individuals 65 years or older should be done as soon as possible. For groups listed in the same phase, 65+ year-olds should be given first priority ahead of others. C_LIO_LIAvailable vaccine doses should be given to the next priority groups as soon as possible without awaiting hesitant up-stream groups. C_LIO_LIWhile efficacy of vaccination off-protocol is unknown, provided immune response following a first vaccine dose persists, delaying the 2nd vaccine dose by [~]1 month (i.e. administer the two doses 8 weeks apart) can substantially reduce infections, hospitalizations, and deaths compared to the 3-week apart regimen. Across all scenarios tested here, delaying the 2nd vaccine dose leads to the largest reduction in severe epidemic outcomes (e.g. hospitalizations and deaths). Therefore, to protect as many people as possible, this strategy should be considered if rapid increases in infections, hospitalization or deaths and/or shortages in vaccines were to occur. C_LI