Community structured model for vaccine strategies to control COVID19 spread: a mathematical study

ABSTRACT

Efforts to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic have relied heavily on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including physical distancing, hand hygiene, and mask-wearing. However, an effective vaccine is essential to containing the spread of the virus. The first doses were distributed at the end of 2020, but the efficacy, period of immunity it will provide, and percentage of coverage still remain unclear. We developed a compartment model to examine different vaccine strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19. Our framework accounts for testing rates, test-turnaround times, and vaccination waning immunity. Using reported case data from the city of Toronto, Canada between Mar-Dec, 2020 we defined epidemic phases of infection using contact rates, which depend on individuals duration of time spent within the household, workplace/school, or community settings, as well as the probability of transmission upon contact. We investigated the impact of vaccine distribution by comparing different permutations of waning immunity, vaccine coverage and efficacy throughout various stages of NPIs relaxation in terms of cases, deaths, and household transmission, as measured using the basic reproduction number (R0). We observed that widespread vaccine coverage substantially reduced the number of cases and deaths. In order for NPIs to be relaxed 8 months after vaccine distribution, infection spread can be kept under control with either 60% vaccine coverage, no waning immunity, and 70% efficacy, or with 60% coverage with a 12-month waning immunity and 90% vaccine efficacy. Widespread virus resurgence can result when the immunity wanes under 3 months and/or when NPIs are relaxed in concomitance with vaccine distribution. In addition to vaccination, our analysis of R0 showed that the basic reproduction number is reduced by decreasing the tests turnaround time and transmission in the household. While we found that household transmission can decrease following the introduction of a vaccine, public health efforts to reduce test turnaround times remain important for virus containment. Our findings suggest that vaccinating two-thirds of the population with a vaccine that is at least 70% effective may be sufficient for controlling COVID-19 spread, as long as NPIs are not immediately relaxed.