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Quantifying the potential for dominant spread of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.351 in the United States
Preprint
in En
| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
| ID: ppmedrxiv-21256996
ABSTRACT
Recent evidence suggests that some new SARS-CoV-2 variants with spike mutations, such as P.1 (Gamma) and B.1.617.2 (Delta), exhibit partial immune evasion to antibodies generated by natural infection or vaccination. By considering the Gamma and Delta variants in a multi-variant transmission dynamic model, we evaluated the dominance of these variants in the United States (US) despite mounting vaccination coverage and other circulating variants. Our results suggest that while the dominance of the Gamma variant is improbable, the Delta variant would become the most prevalent variant in the US, driving a surge in infections and hospitalizations. Our study highlights the urgency for accelerated vaccination and continued adherence to non-pharmaceutical measures until viral circulation is driven low.
cc_by_nc_nd
Full text:
1
Collection:
09-preprints
Database:
PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
Type of study:
Experimental_studies
Language:
En
Year:
2021
Document type:
Preprint