Asymptomatic COVID-19 screening tests to facilitate full-time school attendance: model-based analysis of cost and impact

ABSTRACT

BackgroundIn March 2021, the Biden administration allocated $10 billion for COVID-19 testing in schools. We evaluate the costs and benefits of testing strategies to reduce the infection risks of full-time in-person K-8 education at different levels of community incidence. MethodsWe used an agent-based network model to simulate transmission in elementary and middle school communities, parameterized to a US school structure and assuming dominance of the delta COVID-19 variant. We assess the value of different strategies for testing students and faculty/staff, including expanded diagnostic testing ("test to stay" policies that take the place of isolation for symptomatic students or quarantine for exposed classrooms); screening (routinely testing asymptomatic individuals to identify infections and contain transmission); and surveillance (testing a random sample of students to signaling undetected transmission and trigger additional investigation or interventions). Main outcome measuresWe project 30-day cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection; proportion of cases detected; proportion of planned and unplanned days out of school; and the cost of testing programs and of childcare costs associated with different strategies. For screening policies, we further estimate cost per SARS-CoV-2 infection averted in students and staff, and for surveillance, probability of correctly or falsely triggering an outbreak response at different incidence and attack rates. ResultsAccounting for programmatic and childcare costs, "test to stay" policies achieve similar model-projected transmission to quarantine policies, with reduced overall costs. Weekly universal screening prevents approximately 50% of in-school transmission, with a lower projected societal cost than hybrid or remote schooling. The cost per infection averted in students and staff by weekly screening is lower for older students and schools with higher mitigation and declines as community transmission rises. In settings where local student incidence is unknown or rapidly changing, surveillance may trigger detection of moderate-to-large in-school outbreaks with fewer resources compared to screening. Conclusions"Test to stay" policies and/or screening tests can facilitate consistent in-person school attendance with low transmission risk across a range of community incidence. Surveillance may be a useful reduced-cost option for detecting outbreaks and identifying school environments that may benefit from increased mitigation.