Characterization of the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in India: A Google Trends Analysis

ABSTRACT

BackgroundThe second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to considerable morbidity and mortality in India, in part due to lack of healthcare access, low health literacy, and poor disease surveillance. In this retrospective, descriptive ecological study, we utilized Google Trends (GT) to characterize the second COVID-19 wave and its association with official case counts based on search terms related to symptoms, testing, disease complications, medications, preventive behaviors, and healthcare utilization. MethodsGT is a publicly available, online tracking system of Google searches. Searches are presented as relative search volumes (RSV) from 0 (least) to 100 (most number of searches). We performed pre-defined Web searches in India from 2/12/2021 to 5/09/2021. We characterized the peak RSV, RSV doubling rates, and Spearman rank correlation of selected search terms with official case counts. We also used date-adjusted linear regression to estimate the association between highly correlated search terms and official case counts. We then qualitatively classified public search queries into thematic groups to better understand public awareness and needs related to COVID-19. ResultsWe observed that searches for symptoms (most searched terms in order fever, cough, headache, fatigue, chest pain), disease states (infection, pneumonia), COVID-19-related medications (remdesivir, ivermectin, azithromycin, Fabiflu, dexamethasone), testing modalities (PCR, CT Scan, D-dimer, C-reactive protein, oxygen saturation), healthcare utilization (oxygen cylinders, hospital, physician), and preventive behaviors (lockdown, mask, pulse oximetry, hand sanitizer, quarantine) all demonstrated increases, in line with increases in official case counts. Symptoms, PCR testing, outpatient medications, and preventive behaviors peaked around April 24th, approximately two weeks prior to the peak RSV in official case counts. Contrarily, healthcare utilization factors, including searches for hospital, physicians, beds, disease states, and inpatient medications did not peak until the first week of May. There were highly significant correlations between Coronavirus Disease 2019 (r=0.959), fever (r=0.935), pulse oximetry (r=0.952), oxygen saturation (r=0.944), C-reactive protein (r=0.955), D-Dimer (r=0.945), & Fabiflu (r=0.943) and official case counts. ConclusionGT search terms related to symptoms, testing, and medications are highly correlated with official case counts in India, suggesting need for further studies examining GTs potential use as a disease surveillance and public informant tool for public health officials.