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Mechanistic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 immune memory, variants, and vaccines
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-21258018
ABSTRACT
The functional relationship between neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) and protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease remains unclear. We jointly estimated protection against infection and disease progression following natural infection and vaccination from meta-study data. We find that NAbs are strongly correlated with prevention of infection and that any history of NAbs will stimulate immune memory to moderate disease progression. We also find that natural infection provides stronger protection than vaccination for the same level of NAbs, noting that infection itself, unlike vaccination, carries risk of morbidity and mortality, and that our most potent vaccines induce much higher NAb levels than natural infection. These results suggest that while sterilizing immunity may decay, we expect protection against severe disease to be robust over time and in the face of immune-evading variants.
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Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document type:
Preprint
