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Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates
Preprint
in En
| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
| ID: ppmedrxiv-21258647
ABSTRACT
While seasonal variation has a known influence on the transmission of several respiratory viral infections, its role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unclear. As previous analyses have not accounted for the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in the first year of the pandemic, they may yield biased estimates of seasonal effects. Building on two state-of-the-art observational models and datasets, we adapt a fully Bayesian method for estimating the association between seasonality and transmission in 143 temperate European regions. We find strong seasonal patterns, consistent with a reduction in the time-variable Rt of 42.1% (95% CI 24.7% - 53.4%) from the peak of winter to the peak of summer. These results imply that the seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is comparable in magnitude to the most effective individual NPIs but less than the combined effect of multiple interventions.
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Full text:
1
Collection:
09-preprints
Database:
PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
Type of study:
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Language:
En
Year:
2021
Document type:
Preprint