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COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics Underlying Epidemic Waves in Kenya
Samuel P C Brand; John Ojal; Rabia Aziza; Vincent Were; Emelda Okiro; Ivy Kombe; Caroline Mburu; Morris Ogero; Ambrose Agweyu; George M Warimwe; James Nyagwange; Henry Karanja; John Gitonga; Daisy Mugo; Sophie Uyoga; Ifedayo M O Adetifa; J Anthony G Scott; Edward Otieno; Nickson Murunga; Mark Otiende; Lynette I Ochola-Oyier; Charles N Agoti; George Githinji; Kadondi Kasera; Patrick Amoth; Mercy Mwangangi; Rashid Aman; Wangari Ng'ang'a; Benjamin Tsofa; Philip Bejon; Matt J Keeling; D James Nokes; Edwine Barasa.
Affiliation
  • Samuel P C Brand; University of Warwick
  • John Ojal; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Rabia Aziza; University of Warwick
  • Vincent Were; Health Economics Research Unit, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
  • Emelda Okiro; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  • Ivy Kombe; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Caroline Mburu; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Morris Ogero; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Ambrose Agweyu; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  • George M Warimwe; Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  • James Nyagwange; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Henry Karanja; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • John Gitonga; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Daisy Mugo; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Sophie Uyoga; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Ifedayo M O Adetifa; Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • J Anthony G Scott; Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  • Edward Otieno; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Nickson Murunga; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Mark Otiende; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Lynette I Ochola-Oyier; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Charles N Agoti; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • George Githinji; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Kadondi Kasera; Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya
  • Patrick Amoth; Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya
  • Mercy Mwangangi; Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya
  • Rashid Aman; Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya
  • Wangari Ng'ang'a; Presidential Policy & Strategy Unit, The Presidency, Government of Kenya
  • Benjamin Tsofa; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Philip Bejon; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Matt J Keeling; University of Warwick
  • D James Nokes; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
  • Edwine Barasa; Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) -Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP), Kilifi, Kenya
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21259100
Journal article
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ABSTRACT
Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or when infection spreads to susceptible sub-populations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of a new higher-transmissibility variant. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Our predictions of current population exposure in Kenya ([~]75% June 1st) have implications for a fourth wave and future control strategies. One Sentence SummaryCOVID-19 spread in Kenya is explained by mixing heterogeneity and a variant less constrained by high population exposure
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Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Type of study: Experimental_studies / Prognostic study / Rct Language: English Year: 2021 Document type: Preprint
Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Type of study: Experimental_studies / Prognostic study / Rct Language: English Year: 2021 Document type: Preprint
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