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COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics Underlying Epidemic Waves in Kenya
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-21259100
Journal article
A scientific journal published article is available and is probably based on this preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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A scientific journal published article is available and is probably based on this preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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ABSTRACT
Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or when infection spreads to susceptible sub-populations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of a new higher-transmissibility variant. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Our predictions of current population exposure in Kenya ([~]75% June 1st) have implications for a fourth wave and future control strategies. One Sentence SummaryCOVID-19 spread in Kenya is explained by mixing heterogeneity and a variant less constrained by high population exposure
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Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Type of study:
Experimental_studies
/
Prognostic study
/
Rct
Language:
English
Year:
2021
Document type:
Preprint
