Rapid displacement of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 by B.1.617.2 and P.1 in the United States

ABSTRACT

This study reports on the displacement of Alpha (B.1.1.7) by Delta (B.1.617.2 and its substrains AY.1, AY.2, and AY.3) in the United States. By analyzing RT-qPCR testing results and viral sequencing results of samples collected across the United States, we show that the percentage of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases caused by Alpha dropped from 67% in May 2021 to less than 3.0% in just 10 weeks. We also show that the Delta variant has outcompeted the Iota (B.1.526) variant of interest and Gamma (P.1) variant of concern. An analysis of the mean quantification cycles (Cq) values in positive tests over time also reveal that Delta infections lead to a higher viral load on average compared to Alpha infections, but this increase is only 2 to 3x on average for our study design. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Delta variant is more transmissible than the Alpha variant, and that this could be due to the Delta variants ability to establish a higher viral load earlier in the infection compared to the Alpha variant.