Progress of the Delta variant and erosion of vaccine effectiveness, a warning from Utah

ABSTRACT

Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, vaccines have been heralded as the best way to curtail the pandemic. Clinical trials have shown SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to be highly efficacious against both disease and infection. However, those currently in use were primarily tested against early lineages. Data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) against variants of concern (VOC), including the Delta variant (B.1.617.2), remain limited. To examine the effectiveness of vaccination in Utah we compared the proportion of cases reporting vaccination to that expected at different VEs, then estimated the combined daily vaccine effectiveness using a field evaluation approach. Delta has rapidly outcompeted all other variants and, as of June 20th, represents 70% of all SARS-CoV-2 viruses sequenced in Utah. If we attribute the entire change in VE to the Delta variant, the estimated vaccine effectiveness against Delta would be 82% (95% CI 78%, 85%). We show a modest reduction in vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 in Utah corresponding to the expansion of the Delta lineage in the state. This reduction in the effectiveness of available vaccines correlated with the arrival of novel VOCs, rather than waning immunity, is highly concerning.