Transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of Delta variant infections in China

ABSTRACT

BackgroundThe Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become predominant globally. We evaluated the transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of the Delta variant in an outbreak in southern China. MethodsData on confirmed cases and their close contacts were retrospectively collected from the outbreak that occurred in Guangdong, China in May-June 2021. Key epidemiological parameters, temporal trend of viral loads and secondary attack rates were estimated and compared between the Delta variant and the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus. We also evaluated the association of vaccination with viral load and transmission. ResultsWe identified 167 patients infected with the Delta variant in the Guangdong outbreak. The mean estimates of the latent period and the incubation period were 4.0 days and 5.8 days, respectively. A relatively higher viral load was observed in Delta cases than in wild-type infections. The secondary attack rate among close contacts of Delta cases was 1.4%, and 73.9% (95% confidence interval 67.2%, 81.3%) of the transmissions occurred before onset. Index cases without vaccination (OR 2.84, 95% confidence interval 1.19, 8.45) or with one dose of vaccination (OR 6.02, 95% confidence interval 2.45, 18.16) were more likely to transmit infection to their contacts than those who had received 2 doses of vaccination. DiscussionPatients infected with the Delta variant had more rapid symptom onset. The shorter and time-varying serial interval should be accounted in estimation of reproductive numbers. The higher viral load and higher risk of pre-symptomatic transmission indicated the challenges in control of infections with the Delta variant.