SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Potential and Policy Changes in South Carolina, February 2020 - January 2021

ABSTRACT

IntroductionWe aimed to examine how public health policies influenced the dynamics of COVID-19 time-varying reproductive number (Rt) in South Carolina from February 26, 2020 to January 1, 2021. MethodsCOVID-19 case series (March 6, 2020 - January 10, 2021) were shifted by 9 days to approximate the infection date. We analyzed the effects of state and county policies on Rt using EpiEstim. We performed linear regression to evaluate if per-capita cumulative case count varies across counties with different population size. ResultsRt shifted from 2-3 in March to <1 during April and May. Rt rose over the summer and stayed between 1.4 and 0.7. The introduction of statewide mask mandates was associated with a decline in Rt (-15.3%; 95% CrI, -13.6%, -16.8%), and school re-opening, an increase by 12.3% (95% CrI, 10.1%, 14.4%). Less densely populated counties had higher attack rate (p<0.0001). ConclusionThe Rt dynamics over time indicated that public health interventions substantially slowed COVID-19 transmission in South Carolina, while their relaxation may have promoted further transmission. Policies encouraging people to stay home, such as closing non-essential businesses, were associated with Rt reduction, while policies that encouraged more movement, such as re-opening schools, were associated with Rt increase.