Seroprevalence in Tamil Nadu through India's two COVID waves: Evidence on antibody decline following infection and vaccination

ABSTRACT

Four rounds of serological surveys were conducted, spanning two COVID waves (October 2020 and April-May 2021), in Tamil Nadu (population 72 million) state in India. Each round included representative populations in each district of the state, totaling [≥]20,000 persons per round. State-level seroprevalence was 31.5% in round 1 (October-November 2020), after Indias first COVID wave. Seroprevalence fell to 22.9% in 2 (April 2021), consistent with waning of antibodies from natural infection. Seroprevalence rose to 67.1% by round 3 (June-July 2021), reflecting infections from the Delta-variant induced second COVID wave. Seroprevalence rose to 93.1% by round 4 (December 2021-January 2022), reflecting higher vaccination rates. Antibodies also appear to wane after vaccination. Seroprevalence in urban areas was higher than in rural areas, but the gap shrunk over time (35.7 v. 25.7% in round 1, 89.8% v. 91.4% in round 4) as the epidemic spread even in low-density rural areas. Article Summary LineAntibodies waned after Indias first COVID wave and both vaccination and infection contributed its roughly 90% seroprevalence after its second wave.