Age-specific Contribution of Contacts to Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany

ABSTRACT

IntroductionCurrent estimates of pandemic spread using infectious disease models in Germany for SARS-CoV-2 often do not use age-specific infection parameters and are not always based on known contact matrices of the population. They also do not usually include setting-based information of reported cases and do not account for age-specific underdetection of reported cases. Here, we report likely pandemic spread using an age-structured model to understand the age- and setting-specific contribution of contacts to transmission during all phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. MethodsWe developed a deterministic SEIRS model using a pre-pandemic contact matrix. The model is optimized to fit reported age-specific SARS-CoV-2 incidences from the Robert Koch Institute, includes information on setting-specific reported cases in schools and integrates age and pandemic period-specific parameters for underdetection of reported cases deduced from a large population-based seroprevalence study. ResultsWe showed that taking underreporting into account, younger adults and teenagers are the main contributors to infections during the first three pandemic waves in Germany. Overall, the contribution of contacts in schools to the total cases in the population was below 10% during the third wave. DiscussionAccounting for the pandemic phase and age-specific underreporting seems important to correctly identify those parts of the population where quarantine, testing, vaccination, and contact-reduction measures are likely to be most effective and efficient. In the future, we will aim to compare current model estimates with currently emerging during-pandemic age-specific contact survey data.