Spatio-temporal epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 virus lineages in Teesside, UK, in 2020: effects of social deprivation, weather and lockdown on lineage dynamics

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2 emerged in the UK in January 2020 and the Government introduced national lockdowns and regional tiers to control virus transmission. As the outbreak continued, new variants were detected. We analysed spatio-temporal dynamics of positive tests for COVID-19 on Teesside, UK throughout 2020, in relation to socio-economic deprivation, weather, and Government interventions. We used a combination of disease mapping and mixed-effect modelling to investigate the dynamics of positive tests from two sampling strategies and the spread of particular variants of the virus as they emerged on Teesside. SARS-CoV-2 spread was related to the extent of social deprivation, lockdown interventions and weather. SARS-CoV-2 spread faster in some lineages than others, with positive tests related to levels of socio-economic deprivation. The interventions appeared to have different effects in the two waves of disease, and were associated with reduced numbers of records in the first wave, but having no effect during the second. ARTICLE SUMMARY LINERegional spread of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on weather, socio-economic and mandatory lockdowns, but the effectiveness of the latter varies with virus lineage.