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Regional connectivity drove bidirectional transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East during travel restrictions
Edyth Parker; Catelyn Anderson; Mark Zeller; Ahmad Tibi; Jennifer L. Havens; Genevieve Laroche; Mehdi Benlarbi; Ardeshir Ariana; Refugio Robles-Sikisaka; Alaa Latif; Alexander Watts; Abdalla Awidi; Saied A. Jaradat; Karthik Gangavarapu; Ezra Kurzban; Nathaniel L. Matteson; Alvin X. Han; Laura D. Hughes; Michelle McGraw; Emily Spencer; Laura Nicholson; Kamran Khan; Marc A. Suchard; Joel O. Wertheim; Shirlee Wohl; Marceline Cote; Amid Abdelnour; Kristian G. Andersen; Issa Abu-Dayyeh.
Affiliation
  • Edyth Parker; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Catelyn Anderson; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Mark Zeller; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Ahmad Tibi; Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories, Amman, Jordan
  • Jennifer L. Havens; Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Genevieve Laroche; Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology and Immunology, and Center for Infection, Immunity, and Inflammation, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  • Mehdi Benlarbi; Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology and Immunology, and Center for Infection, Immunity, and Inflammation, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  • Ardeshir Ariana; Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology and Immunology, and Center for Infection, Immunity, and Inflammation, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  • Refugio Robles-Sikisaka; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Alaa Latif; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Alexander Watts; Bluedot, Toronto, Canada
  • Abdalla Awidi; Cell Therapy Center, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan; Thrombosis, haemostasis laboratory, School of Medicine, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
  • Saied A. Jaradat; Princess Haya Biotechnology Center, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
  • Karthik Gangavarapu; Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA
  • Ezra Kurzban; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Nathaniel L. Matteson; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Alvin X. Han; Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam Institute for Infection and Immunity, Amsterdam, th
  • Laura D. Hughes; Department of Integrative, Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
  • Michelle McGraw; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Emily Spencer; Scripps Research Translational Institute, La Jolla, USA
  • Laura Nicholson; Scripps Research Translational Institute, La Jolla, USA
  • Kamran Khan; Bluedot, Toronto, Canada
  • Marc A. Suchard; Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA; Department of Biostatistics, Fielding Sc
  • Joel O. Wertheim; Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Shirlee Wohl; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Marceline Cote; Department of Biochemistry, Microbiology and Immunology, and Center for Infection, Immunity, and Inflammation, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  • Amid Abdelnour; Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories, Amman, Jordan
  • Kristian G. Andersen; Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
  • Issa Abu-Dayyeh; Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories, Amman, Jordan; 6 Cell Therapy Center, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-22269922
ABSTRACT
Regional connectivity and land-based travel have been identified as important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, the generalizability of this finding is understudied outside of well-sampled, highly connected regions such as Europe. In this study, we investigated the relative contributions of regional and intercontinental connectivity to the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for Jordan and the wider Middle East. By integrating genomic, epidemiological and travel data we show that the source of introductions into Jordan was dynamic across 2020, shifting from intercontinental seeding from Europe in the early pandemic to more regional seeding for the period travel restrictions were in place. We show that land-based travel, particularly freight transport, drove introduction risk during the period of travel restrictions. Consistently, high regional connectivity and land-based travel also disproportionately drove Jordans export risk to other Middle Eastern countries. Our findings emphasize regional connectedness and land-based travel as drivers of viral transmission in the Middle East. This demonstrates that strategies aiming to stop or slow the spread of viral introductions (including new variants) with travel restrictions need to prioritize risk from land-based travel alongside intercontinental air travel to be effective. HighlightsO_LIRegional connectivity drove SARS-CoV-2 introduction risk in Jordan during the period travel restrictions were in place in genomic and travel data. C_LIO_LILand-based travel rather than air travel disproportionately drove introduction risk during travel restrictions. C_LIO_LIHigh regional connectivity disproportionately drove Jordans export risk, with significant contribution from land-based travel. C_LIO_LIRegional transmission dynamics were underestimated in genomic data due to unrepresentative sampling. C_LI
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Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Year: 2022 Document type: Preprint
Fulltext
Add to My VHL
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Full text: Available Collection: Preprints Database: medRxiv Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Year: 2022 Document type: Preprint