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Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv
| ID: ppmedrxiv-22279948
ABSTRACT
The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, denoted R0. The value of R0 gives the expected number of new cases generated by an infectious person in a wholly susceptible population and depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we estimated region-specific R0 values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. Our estimates range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases. One-Sentence SummaryInitial contagiousness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 varied over a 4-fold range across urban areas of the United States. LA-UR-22-29514
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Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Database:
medRxiv
Language:
English
Year:
2022
Document type:
Preprint
