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Boletim COVID-PA: Reports on artificial intelligence-based forecasting to the facing of pandemic COVID-19 in the state of Pará, Brazil / Boletín COVID-PA: Informes de proyecciones basadas en inteligencia artificial para enfrentar la pandemia COVID-19 en el estado de Pará, Brasil / Boletim COVID-PA: relatos sobre projeções baseadas em inteligência artificial no enfrentamento da pandemia de COVID-19 no estado do Pará
Preprint
in Portuguese
| SciELO Preprints
| ID: pps-2778
Responsible library:
BR1.1
ABSTRACT
Objective:
Report the university research and extension product denominated 'Boletim COVID-PA' which presented projections about the pandemic in the State of Pará, Brazil, with practical, mathematically rigorous and computationally efficient approaches.Methods:
The artificial intelligence technique known as Artificial Neural Networks was used to generate thirteen bulletins with short-term projections based on historical data from the State Department of Public Health system.Results:
After eight months of projections, the technique generated reliable results with an average accuracy of 97% (147 days observed) for confirmed cases, 96% (161 observed days) for deaths and 86% (72 days observed) for occupancy of intensive care unit beds.Conclusion:
These bulletins have become a useful tool for decision making by public managers, assisting in reallocating hospital resources and optimizing COVID-19 control strategies for the various regions of the State of Pará.RESUMO
Objetivo:
Relatar o produto de pesquisa e extensão universitária denominado Boletim COVID-PA, que apresentou projeções sobre o comportamento da pandemia no estado do Pará, Brasil.Métodos:
Utilizou-se da técnica de inteligência artificial conhecida como 'redes neurais artificiais', para gerar 13 boletins com projeções de curto prazo baseadas nos dados históricos do sistema da Secretaria de Estado de Saúde Pública.Resultados:
Após oito meses de projeções, a técnica gerou resultados confiáveis, com precisão média de 97% (147 dias observados) para casos confirmados, 96% (161 dias observados) para óbitos e 86% (72 dias observados) para ocupação de leitos de unidade de terapia intensiva.Conclusão:
Esses boletins tornaram-se um instrumento útil para a tomada de decisão de gestores públicos, auxiliando na realocação de recursos hospitalares e otimização das estratégias de controle da COVID-19 nas diversas regiões do estado do Pará.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Preprints
Health context:
SDG3 - Target 3.3 End transmission of communicable diseases
Health problem:
COVID-19
Database:
SciELO Preprints
Type of study:
Prognostic study
/
Screening study
Aspects:
Patient-preference
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Brazil
Language:
Portuguese
Year:
2021
Document type:
Preprint
