Climate change and predicted trend of fungal keratitis in Egypt

ABSTRACT

Rising rates of invasive fungal infections may be linked to global climate change. A study was made of the trend of ophthalmic fungal corneal keratitis in the greater Cairo area of Egypt and its association with climate records during the same period. Data on diagnosed cases of fungal keratitis were collected from records of ophthalmic departments of Cairo University hospital and atmospheric temperature and humidity for the greater Cairo area were obtained from online records. Statistical analysis showed a significant increase in the relative frequency of keratornycosis during 1997-2007. The rise correlated significantly with rises in minimum temperature and the maximum atmospheric humidity in the greater Cairo area over the same period [after exclusion of the effect of the maximum atmospheric temperature]. The predicted increase in keratornycosis up to the year 2030 corresponds to predicted increases in CO[2] emissions and surface temperature from climate change models for Egypt