Long Term Prospects for the Blood Supply and Demand / 대한수혈학회지

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There is a need to prepare an adequate blood supply because of the imbalance between the blood supply and demand and the advent of an aging society. This paper presents the basic data for the blood supply and demand through an estimation of the blood donation and blood usage over the next ten years. METHODS: Data analysis was carried out using time-series methods. The data for the monthly blood donation from the Korean Red Cross from 1992 to 2004 was used to estimate the blood donation, and data of the blood supply from the Korean Red Cross and hospitals from 2000 to 2004 for the estimation of the blood supply for transfusion. In order to overcome the limits of the time-series methods, one prospect excluding the data from the year 2004 and the other prospect including the data from the year 2004 were analyzed simultaneously. RESULTS: According to the analysis performed with data from the year 2004 excluded, blood donation rate is expected to decrease to 2.5% in 2015 and the total blood demand (1,435,903 units), which is composed of RBC and single donor platelet, is expected to exceed the total blood donation (1,408,244 donors) by 2015. According to the analysis performed with the data from the year 2004 included, the blood donation rate is expected to decrease to 1.3% in 2015 and the total blood demand (1,760,219 units) is expected to exceed the total blood donation (1,639,042 donors) in 2009. CONCLUSION: A shortage of blood supply is expected to occur during the next ten years. In order to eliminate this blood shortage, a national data management system for blood collection and usage will be needed. In addition, adequate donor resources as well as a monitoring system will be needed to improve the efficiency of blood usage.