A comparison between the metabolic syndrome score and the Framingham risk score in the prediction of cardiovascular disease / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To compare metabolic syndrome(MS)score with the 10-year-Framingham risk score(FRS)to predict the occurrence of cardiovascular disease(CVD).Methods MS score for prediction of CVD was developed based on the 10-year FRS.Cox proportional hazard model and receiver-operating characteristic(ROC)curves were used to compare the predictive effects,based on data from a cohort study on the prevention of multiple metabolic disorders and MS in Jiangsu province.Results Area under the curve(AUC)increased after changing MS components into continuous variables.AUC of MS score/MS components aggregation was 0.70/0.65,P＜0.05 and sensitivity of MS score/MS components aggregation was 80.5%/74.4% for a given specificity.After mutually adjusted risk factors of MS score and the FRS,when age was exclusively excluded,AUC of the FRS decreased from 0.78 to 0.65(P＜0.05).However,when age was included,the AUC of MS score increased to 0.78(sensitivity of MS score including the age/the FRS:90.2% vs.87.8 %);In Cox proportional hazards multiple risk factors analysis,MS score including age appeared greater association with CVD than FRS on the same exposed subjects.Conclusion The new developed MS score with age included was a valid tool for predicting CVD and its predictive ability was as good as the FRS.