Estimation of demands for medical services and regional health planning / 中华医院管理杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To seek a rational method of estimating the demands for medical services so as to work out regional health planning in a scientific way. Methods A metropolis including 19 counties and districts was selected as a region and demands for medical services were forecasted via retrospective analysis and the econometric model. Results A model of the demands for outpatient and inpatient services was obtained based on the impact of many social and economic factors on medical health services, and illustrations were given to indicate the demands for medical health services in the 19 counties and districts in future when prices should rise by 15% and 20%. Conclusion The econometric model can be used as a tool for estimating the demands for medical health services, and yet improvements need to be made.