Procalcitonin combined with coagulation factors in prognosis of cirrhotic patients complicated with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis / 中华临床感染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To examine the short-term prognostic value of procalcitonin ( PCT ) combined with coagulation factors for cirrhotic patients complicated with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP).Methods Clinical data of 128 cirrhotic patients complicated with SBP admitted in Jinhua Central Hospital from June 2014 to October 2017 were retrospectively analyzed .In 3 months after admission , 83 patients survived ( survival group ) and 45 patients died ( fatal group ) .The factors related to prognosis were analyzed with Logistic regression and the prediction model was constructed with the weights derived from regression coefficients.The ROC curve and the area under the curve (AUC) of combination of PCT with coagulation factors were used to predict the survival of patients .Results Univariate analysis indicated that the level of PCT , total bilirubin ( TBil ) , serum creatinine ( Scr ) , prothrombin time ( PT ) , prothrombin activity ( PTA ) , blood coagulation factor Ⅱ, Ⅴ, Ⅶ, Ⅸ, Ⅹ, Ⅺ and Ⅻ were factors affecting the prognosis of cirrhotic patients complicated with SBP (P<0.01).Multivariate analysis showed that PCT , blood coagulation factors Ⅴ and Ⅸ were independent factors of short-term prognosis of cirrhotic patients complicated with SBP.The constructed predictive model was Logit (P) =1.200+0.099 ×PCT-0.026 × clotting factor Ⅴ-0.038 ×clotting factor Ⅸ.The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 0.822 and 0.675, respectively, and the AUC was 0.829.Compared with the classic MELD score , the difference was not statistically significant (P>0.05).Conclusions The predictive model based on PCT and coagulation factors Ⅴand Ⅸcan effectively predict the short-term survival of cirrhotic patients complicated with SBP . The overall prognostic ability is not different from MELD score , but the model is more simple and easier to apply.