Assessment of the Surveillance Interval at 1 Year after Curative Treatment in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Risk Stratification
Gut and Liver
; : 571-582, 2018.
Article
in English
| WPRIM (Western Pacific)
| ID: wpr-716828
Responsible library:
WPRO
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND/AIMS:
Guidelines recommend surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence at 3-month intervals during the first year after curative treatment and 6-month intervals thereafter in all patients. This strategy does not reflect individual risk of recurrence. We aimed to stratify risk of recurrence to optimize surveillance intervals 1 year after treatment.METHODS:
We retrospectively analyzed 1,316 HCC patients treated with resection/radiofrequency ablation at Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/ A. In patients without 1-year recurrence under 3-monthly surveillance, a new model for recurrence was developed using backward eliminationmethods:
training (n=582)/ validation cohorts (n=291). Overall survival (OS) according to risk stratified by the new model was compared according to surveillance intervals 3-monthly versus 6-monthly (n=401) after lead time bias correction and propensity-score matching analyses.RESULTS:
Among patients without 1-year recurrence, age and international normalized ratio values were significant factors for recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03; p=0.009 and HR, 5.63; 95% CI, 2.24 to 14.18; p < 0.001; respectively). High-risk patients stratified by the new model showed significantly higher recurrence rates than low-risk patients in the validation cohort (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.53; p=0.005). After propensity-score matching between the 3-monthly and 6-monthly surveillance groups, OS in high-risk patients under 3-monthly surveillance was significantly higher than that under 6-monthly surveillance (p=0.04); however, OS in low-risk patients under 3-monthly surveillance was not significantly different from that under 6-monthly surveillance (p=0.17).CONCLUSIONS:
In high-risk patients, 3-monthly surveillance can prolong survival compared to 6-monthly surveillance. However, in low-risk patients, 3-monthly surveillance might not be beneficial for survival compared to 6-monthly surveillance.
Full text:
Available
Database:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Main subject:
Recurrence
/
Bias
/
Retrospective Studies
/
Cohort Studies
/
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular
/
International Normalized Ratio
/
Liver Neoplasms
Type of study:
Etiology study
/
Practice guideline
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Incidence study
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Observational study
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Prognostic study
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Risk factors
/
Screening study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Gut and Liver
Year:
2018
Document type:
Article