An analysis on spatial and temporal distribution of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 N1 / 预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 based on Geography Information System (GIS),and to learn the mechanism of the occurrence and spread of H5N1.Methods A total of 2 069 officially confirmed cases of H5N1 outbreak reported to WHO and World Organization for Animal Health (OIE)from 2003 to 2012 were analyzed using a GIS based approach.Hot spot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*)was used in the spatial and temporal analysis.Results From 2003 to 2012,2 069 cases of H5N1 outbreak was reported in Vietnam (1 055),Bangladesh (528)and Indonesia (209).The most of the outbreaks were reported in Ganges Delta,Mekong Delta,areas around Dacca and West Java.The occurrence,spread and distribution pattern of the disease varied within different spatial scale,and the epidemic showed a bipolar distribution in Vietnam,aradial distribution in Bangladesh and a shrinking pattern in Indonesia.Conclusion Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 was first emerged in city and then spread through poultry trading or transportation,and finally caused epidemic in regions with high density poultry and intensive agriculture.Hot spot analysis had a great application value in disease surveillance and early warning.