The relationship between air quality improvement and the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort study / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the effect of decreased air pollutants concentrations on the incidence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM). Methods A prospective cohort was designed in Tianjin where the air quality gradually improved from 2014 to 2018. A total of 5 077 community residents (18-90 years old) were recruited as the baseline population from 2013 to 2014. From 2014 to 2018 follow-up was carried out year by year to observe the new incidence of T2DM in the cohort. The HR and 95%CI (95% confidence interval) were calculated with the multiple Cox proportional hazard regression model to evaluate the effect of the decrease in the concentrations of SO2, NO2, and particulate matters with diameters 10, PM2.5) on the incidence of T2DM. Results The cohort was followed up year by year from 2014 to 2018, with a cumulative follow-up of 25 385 person-years over the 5 years. At the same time, the air quality of Tianjin was significantly improved. Statistical analysis results after covariate adjustment revealed that the risk of T2DM in the population decreased by 0.172, 0.124, and 0.210 times, for a decrease of 10 μg/m3 in the annual average concentrations of SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 each, respectively (SO2：HR=0.828，95%CI=0.757-0.907；PM10：HR=0.876，95%CI=0.816-0.941；PM2.5：HR=0.790，95%CI=0.694-0.899). Conclusion The implementation of environmental protection measures to improve air pollution could reduce the risk of T2DM in the population and control the increasing prevalence.