The Prognostic Factors in the Survival of Adult CAPD Patients / 대한신장학회잡지

ABSTRACT

As a single CAPD center in Korea, we, at the department of internal medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, conducted a retrospective study in CAPD patients for the causes of death, patient survival rate, technique success rate, and risk factors. We enrolled in our study 167 patients who had began CAPD as an initial replacement therapy for end stage renal disease from March 1992 to July 1997 and survived for more than 2 months. As the prognostic factors of patient survival and technique success, we analyzed demographic features, clinical features including comorbid conditions at the beginning of CAPD, and laboratory findings at the beginning and 6 months after the start of CAPD. The mean age of patients was 49.8 12.5, and sex ratio was 1.4 1(M F). The mean follow-up period was 24.0 +/- 14.4 months. Cerebrovasular accident(CVA), the patient giving up on the treatment, cardiac dis- eases and peritonitis were the main causes of death in CAPD patients. Among the causes of death, although CVA and the patient giving up on the treatment were relatively important, the most im- portant causes of death were cardiovascular diseases. The 2 year survival rate and 4 year survival rate of CAPD patients were 89.4% and 55.579o respectively ; the 2 year technique success rate and 4 year technique success rate of CAPD were 87.37% and 63.18% respectively ; and the mean survival period and technique success period were 50.57 +/- 2.42 and 49.37 +/- 2.85 rnonths, respectively. We determined the independent prognostic factors for patient survival to be diabetes mellitus(p=0.0004, relative risk=5.9263) and liver cirrhosis(p=0.0032, RR=5.3211) using multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazard model. Although the results were statistically insignificant, the patients with cardiac diseases(p=0.0961, RR= 2.0116) and older patients who were over 60 years old(p=0.1312, RR=1.8431) had a poor prognosis. The probable prognostic factors for 2 year survival of patients, considered marker of risk factors for early death, were DM, liver cirrhosis, and cardiac diseases, though statistically insignificant, and they were similar to prognostic factors for the patient survival during the entire period. The independent prognostic factor of technique failure of CAPD was DM(p= 0.0150, RR=2.6762). The patient survival rate and technique success rate of CAPD patients were similar to the outcomes reported in other countries. However, the fact that liver cirrhosis was included as one of the independent prognostic factors seems to reflect a disease characteristic of Korean population in whom chronic liver diseases are prevalent. Due to ever increasing pro- portions of DM, cardiac diseases, and older patients in CAPD patients and the prevalence of liver cirrhosis in Korea, more intensive management is necessary for CAPD patients with these disorders/ conditions.