A nomogram based on CT characteristics for differentiating mass-forming chronic pancreatitis from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients with chronic pancreatitis history / 中华胰腺病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To develop a visualized nomogram with a predictive value to differentiate mass-forming chronic pancreatitis (MFCP) from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) history.Methods:The clinical and radiological data of 5 433 CP patients acoording to the Asia-Pacific Diagnostic Criteria between February 2011 and February 2021 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University were retrospectively analyzed, and 71 PDAC patients with CP history and 67 MFCP who underwent surgery or biopsy and pathologically confirmed were eventually enrolled. The training set included 44 patients with MFCP and 59 patients with PDAC who were diagnosed between February 2011 and April 2018. The validation set consisted of 23 patients with MFCP and 12 patients with PDAC who were diagnosed between May 2018 and February 2021. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a prediction model for PDAC and MFCP, and the model was visualized as a nomogram. ROC was used to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the nomogram, and the clinical usefulness was judged by decision curve analysis.Results:The univariate analysis showed that a significant association with pancreatic cancer were observed for the duct-to-parenchyma ratio ≥0.34, pancreatic duct cut-off, pancreatic portal hypertension, arterial CT attenuation, portal venous CT attenuation, delayed CT attenuation, and vascular invasion in both the training and validation cohorts, but the duct-penetrating sign in the training cohort only. The multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that statistically significant differences (all P value <0.05) existed in cystic degeneration, a duct-to-parenchyma ratio ≥0.34, the duct-penetrating sign, pancreatic portal hypertension and arterial CT attenuation between the two cohorts. The above parameters were selected for the logistic regression model. The predicted model=3.65-2.59×cystic degeneration+ 1.26×duct-to-parenchyma ratio≥0.34-1.40×duct-penetrating sign+ 1.36×pancreatic portal hypertension-0.05×arterial CT attenuation. Area under the curve, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the model-based nomogram were 0.87 (95 CI 0.80-0.94), 89.0%, 75.0% and 83.5% in the training cohort, and 0.94 (95 CI 0.82-0.99), 91.7%, 100% and 97.1% in the validation cohort, respectively. Decision curve analysis showed that when the nomogram differentiated MFCP from PDAC patients with CP history at a rate of 0.05-0.85, the application of the nomogram could benefit the patients. Conclusions:The nomogram based on CT radiological features accurately differentiated MFCP from PDAC patients with CP history and provide reference for guiding the treatment and judging the prognosis.