Incident stroke after discharge from the hospital with a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.

PURPOSE: Atrial fibrillation is an important risk factor for stroke. We analyzed stroke risk over time in patients discharged from the hospital with a diagnosis of incident atrial fibrillation as compared with the risk of stroke in the Danish population. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: In a random sample of half of the Danish population, we identified 13,625 men and 13,577 women, aged 50 to 89 years, with a hospital diagnosis of atrial fibrillation and no prior diagnosis of stroke during 1980 to 1993. Data on other medical conditions were also available from 1977 to 1993, but medication data were not available. Patients were followed from the diagnosis of atrial fibrillation until the first diagnosis of stroke (nonfatal or fatal cerebral ischemic infarct and cerebral hemorrhage), death, or the end of 1993. The risk of stroke in these patients was compared with the risk in the Danish population using Poisson regression modeling to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: For men with atrial fibrillation, the stroke rates increased by age, from 13 per 1,000 person-years in those ages 50 to 59 years, to 22 per 1,000 person-years in those ages 60 to 69 years, to 42 per 1,000 person-years in those ages 70 to 79 years, to 51 per 1,000 person-years in those ages 80 to 89 years. Age-specific stroke rates were similar in women with atrial fibrillation. Patients with a hospital diagnosis of atrial fibrillation had an increased risk of stroke (RR = 2.4; 95% CI, 2.3 to 2.5 in men and RR = 3.0; 95% CI, 2.9 to 3.2 in women) compared with the Danish population. Stroke risk was greatest during the first year after discharge and decreased thereafter. Hypertension, diabetes, and peripheral atherosclerosis were also associated with an increased risk of stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation. Ischemic heart disease and heart failure were risk factors in men only. There was no reduction in the risk of stroke from 1980 to 1993. CONCLUSIONS: Men and women with atrial fibrillation are at a substantially increased risk of stroke, particularly in the first year after the diagnosis.